By Rep. Tom Tancredo

As part of conservatives' sober assessment of the 2008 election, we need to take a close look at the so-called "Hispanic vote." I offer the following observations, which are based on the latest available exit poll data and respected voter surveys. The real problem goes much deeper than John McCain's inept campaign. We can and must do a better job of reaching Hispanic voters, but we can do that without pandering or compromising conservative principles.

1. Is there such a thing as the "Hispanic Vote"?

Yes and No. Hispanics do not vote as a bloc and their pattern of voting did not change radically in 2008, contrary to the hype and distortion coming from amnesty advocates like the Mexican-American Legal Defense and Education Fund (MALDEF). What changed was the number of Hispanic citizens who went to the polls in 2008, not their party allegiances. If you correct the voting data for income and education levels, Hispanics vote much the same way as other Americans of similar socio-economic status.

2. Was there a major shift among Hispanic voters toward the Democrat Party in 2008?

No, not relative to historical pa tterns of the past 20 years. According to the Pew Hispanic Center report on the 2008 election, the 67% of Hispanic votes that went to Barack Obama was within the norm for presidential elections since 1988. Bill Clinton got 72% in 1996 and Al Gore 62% in 2000. Thus, Obama's 67% was not a departure from historical levels. While Bush got 40% of the Hispanic vote in 2004, he got only 35% in 2000 and the Republican candidate in 1996, Robert Dole, received only 21%.

3. Was the large Hispanic vote for Obama a reversal of Republican gains of recent years?

No, not unless you use only 2004 as a comparison and ignore the trends of the past 20 years. The decline in Republican vote by Hispanics from 2004 to 2008 was less significant than McCain's loss of support in other demographic groups - such as among voters age 18-29, Catholics, evangelical Christians, and women of all ages. Obama even got 20% of the vote among self-identified conservatives, compared to John Kerry's 8% in 2004. McCain's 31% in 2008 was close to the 30% earned by Republican congressional candidates in 2006.

4. Was the immigration reform issue the main factor in winning Hispanic support for Obama over McCain in 2008?

No, the evidence suggests exactly the opposite. A poll of likely voters in July sponsored by Univision showed that only 11% of Hispanic voters considere d immigration to be the most important issue of the election - compared to 54% who ranked jobs the number one issue. An exit poll conducted for CNN showed that Hispanic voters ranked immigration seventh in importance among all issues. The idea that Hispanic voters care mainly about immigration policy ahead of all other issues is a myth created by advocacy groups. A July survey by the Pew Hispanic Center showed Obama's margin of support over McCain on the immigration issue - 59% to 19% -- was nearly identical to his margin on other issues: health care (64%to 19%), education (66% to 18%) and jobs (65% to 19%).

5. What about trends in party orientation and registration?

Hispanic voters have been registering predominantly Democratic for decades. What changed in 2008 was the increase in Hispanic registration and turnout, not the strong preference for Democratic candidates.

Republican Party registration among Hispanic voters is now only 16% nationally compared to 51% Democrat. For recent immigrants who have been naturalized and are newly registered to vote, their country of origin affects voting behavior. For example, Hispanic citizens who were born in Cuba are almost twice as likely to be registered Republican as those born in Mexico. Current immigration patterns (both legal and illegal) inevitably affect voter registration trends and tilt the playing field toward the Democrat Party. This has been true since the 1965 amendments to the Immigration and Naturalization Act, w hich shifted immigration allotments away from job skills and toward family reunification.

Past immigration amnesties rewarded illegal aliens from Mexico and Central America disproportionately to other nationalities, thereby adding millions of new legal aliens likely to register as Democrats after naturalization.

6. Taking the swing state of Colorado as an example, did the higher Hispanic turnout cost John McCain the state's nine Electoral College votes?

No. In Colorado John McCain actually received a higher percentage of Hispanic votes than George Bush did in 2004 — 38% vs. 31% according to exit polls. McCain's small gains among Hispanic voters in Colorado did not offset his large losses among other groups: a 7% increase among the 13% of the voters who were Hispanic translates to less than 1% gain in overall votes. Compared to Bush in 2004, McCain suffered a 9% decline in support among non-Hispanic whites, which cost him six times as many votes as he gained among Hispanics. Thus, McCain's loss in Colorado was due to receiving less support than Bush across a wide spectrum of groups and cannot be attributed to any one factor or demographic.

7. Are there significant differences in the voting pattern of native-born Hispanics citizens and newly naturalized Hispanic citizens?

Yes. Foreign-born (naturalized) Hispanic voters are 50% more likely to register as Democrats than native-born Hispanic voters and they voted for Obama over Mc Cain by a 78% to 22% margin. That segment has now grown to 33% of all Hispanic voters.

If Congress passes a new amnesty program for fifteen million illegal aliens, we can expect to see that figure rise to 50% by 2016, which means a proportionate rise in Democratic voter registrations.

8. Do the voting patterns of newly naturalized Hispanic voters differ significantly from the voting patterns of other immigrants who become citizens?

Not historically, but Hispanic immigrants (especially those who entered the country illegally) tend to have lower education and job skills than other immigrants, and those characteristics affect party registration in a Democrat direction. For that reason, immigrants tend to register and vote Democratic. Party affiliation changes over time with increased income and family relocation to more affluent neighborhoods. The influx of millions of low-skilled individuals who can work only at low-wage jobs translates into millions of new Democratic Party registrations when they attain legal status and join the voter rolls.
 

What lessons can Republicans draw from the 67% Hispanic vote for Obama?

1. Hispanics have been registering and voting Democrat in presidential elections by a two-to-one ratio for 20 years and the 2008 vote for Obama is consistent with that pattern.

2. The issues that mattered most to Hispanics in 2008 were jobs and the economy, health care, crime, and the costs of hig her education, not immigration policy.

3. The 24-month-long intensive and well financed voter registration drives by liberal groups and the Democratic Party paid off in increased Hispanic voting, including higher turnout rates among already registered individuals.

4. McCain's support for "comprehensive immigration reform" and amnesty did not help him win Hispanic voters - they had other issues that were more important to them, and he lost their support on those issues as well.

5. It is a mistake to look upon Hispanic citizens as a special interest group interested only or primarily in immigration policy. That is condescending and stupid, stupid because Democrats will always outbid Republicans in that game.

The Republican Party should stop trying to design an "appeal to Hispanics" and instead appeal to Hispanic citizens on the same broad range of issues that are important to all Americans - national security, education, job creation, small business opportunities, and family values. Like all Americans, Hispanic citizens are interested in the prosperity, security and well-being of their families. When Republicans build a better platform on those issues, a platform that appeals to all Americans of every ethnic background, Hispanic citizens will come to the Republican Party.

Tom Tancredo represents Colorado's 6th congressional district in the United States House of Representatives.